I wanted to conduct a little experiment, as a follow up to some posts which assert bias and a USA centric, hegemonic view of the world. I apologise now, that this is a necessarily long post. Please bare with me as the results that follow may raise your eyebrows and lead to some serious questions. The methodology is clear, it may not be perfect, but you can make of it what you will, and repeat it yourself with a topic of your choosing.
I used GPT-4, via Perplexity AI (As it makes the sources more apparent) to suggest policy solutions to a real world problem, the economic state of the UK economy, in order to ascertain the bias in it's chosen sources and the effect this would have upon the answer(s).
I chose the field of economics as, for me, any differences in the given answers would be rapidly apparent, as I have informally studied economics since the 2008 Great Financial Crash. I'm no self-proclaimed expert but would hope I've learnt sufficient for this experiment to be of some utility.
Prompt: If a national economy has an expected growth of -0.3% an inflation rate of 9% food inflation rate of 19% and a £108.0 billion trade deficit, what economic policy options are available for the nation to mitigate against these effects and enable sustainable growth?
Answer: 'To mitigate the effects of a -0.3% expected growth, a 9% inflation rate, a 19% food inflation rate, and a £108.0 billion trade deficit, the nation can consider implementing a combination of economic policies that target sustainable growth, inflation control, and trade deficit reduction. These policies can be divided into demand-side and supply-side measures.
Demand-side policies
Fiscal policy: The government can reduce spending and increase taxes to help control inflation1. This can involve implementing fiscal restraint, which can lower inflation while reducing debt2.
Monetary policy: The central bank can pursue a contractionary monetary policy by increasing interest rates, which reduces the money supply within the economy and slows economic growth by making credit more expensive. This can help control inflation and stabilize the economy.
Supply-side policies
- Green growth policies: The government can implement stringent environmental policies that are flexible and minimize barriers to entry and competition, fostering sustainable economic growth.
- Education and training: Investing in education and training can improve the productivity and efficiency of the workforce, contributing to long-term economic growth.
- Trade policies: To reduce the trade deficit, the government can consider devaluing the home currency, making exports cheaper and imports more expensive. Additionally, implementing import quotas and promoting free trade agreements can help tackle the trade deficit.
- Inflation control: Governments can provide targeted support to vulnerable populations affected by soaring food prices, while avoiding adding to aggregate demand that risks increasing inflation.
- Infrastructure investment: Investing in infrastructure can boost economic growth, create jobs, and improve the overall productivity of the economy.
- Deregulation and privatization: Reducing regulations and promoting privatization can encourage competition, innovation, and efficiency in various sectors of the economy, contributing to sustainable growth.
- Fiscal consolidation: Limiting debt and implementing supply-side policy reforms can complement the central bank's efforts to cool demand through monetary tightening, ultimately reducing inflation.
By implementing a combination of these demand-side and supply-side policies, the nation can work towards mitigating the negative effects of its current economic situation and enable sustainable growth in the long term.'
19 Sources: Investopedia (How Do Governments Fight Inflation?), IMF (How Fiscal Restraint Can Help Fight Inflation), OECD (Economic policies to foster green growth), Economics Help (Policies for Economic Growth), Economics Help (Reducing a Trade Deficit), linkedin (Balance of trade: Correcting trade deficit), UN (Promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth, employment and decent work for all), Senate (JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE REPUBLICANS RANKING MEMBER - SENATOR MIKE LEE Policy Solutions to Reduce Inflation), Investopedia (Negative Growth: Definition and Economic Impact), Peterson Institute for International Economics (Three Ways to Reduce a Trade Deficit), GU.S. Government Accountability Office (Inflation and Rising Food Prices: How Does Federal Food Assistance Change?), International Monetary Fund (FISCAL POLICY: TAKING AND GIVING AWAY), Congressional Research Service (U.S. Food Price Inflation and Agriculture Policy), World Economic Forum (These are the 4 steps we need to make economic growth sustainable, resilient and inclusive), Harvard Business Review (A New Approach to Rebalancing the U.S-China Trade Deficit), protect the harvest (Government Policy Impacts Food Inflation), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (Growth Policies and Macroeconomic Stability), McKinsey (Growth for all, growth for good. Here, we offer a proposal for business, government, and society leaders), Economics Help (Policies to reduce inflation)
Next I slightly reframed the prompt by asking for the problem be viewed through the lens of heterodox economic theories, the result follows:
'In a national economy with an expected growth of -0.3%, an inflation rate of 9%, a food inflation rate of 19%, and a £108.0 billion trade deficit, heterodox economic policies can be employed to mitigate these effects and enable sustainable growth. Heterodox economics refers to alternative approaches to mainstream economic theories, focusing on issues such as power relations, economic systems, and historical context. Here are some policy options that can be considered:
Fiscal policy measures: Implementing expansionary fiscal policies, such as increasing government spending and reducing taxes, can help stimulate economic growth and reduce the trade deficit. This can be done through targeted public investments in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, which can create jobs and improve productivity.
Monetary policy measures: Adopting unconventional monetary policies, such as lowering interest rates or implementing quantitative easing, can help reduce inflation and stimulate economic growth. However, these measures should be carefully designed to avoid exacerbating inflationary pressures or creating financial instability.
Exchange rate policy: Managing the exchange rate to promote competitiveness and reduce the trade deficit can be an effective strategy. This can be achieved through interventions in the foreign exchange market or by implementing capital controls to manage capital flows.
Income policies: Implementing income policies, such as wage controls or price controls, can help reduce inflation and stabilize the economy. These measures can be particularly effective in addressing food inflation, which has a significant impact on the cost of living and social welfare.
Structural reforms: Implementing structural reforms to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy can help promote sustainable growth and reduce the trade deficit. This can include measures to improve the business environment, enhance labor market flexibility, and promote innovation.
Degrowth strategies: Adopting degrowth strategies, which focus on reducing the scale of economic activity to achieve environmental sustainability and social equity, can help address the negative consequences of economic growth. This can involve measures to promote local production, reduce resource consumption, and prioritize well-being over GDP growth.
International cooperation: Engaging in international cooperation and coordination can help address global imbalances and promote sustainable growth. This can involve participating in multilateral trade negotiations, coordinating macroeconomic policies, and sharing best practices in economic policy.
In conclusion, a combination of heterodox economic policies can be employed to address the challenges faced by a national economy with negative growth, high inflation, and a large trade deficit. These policies should be carefully designed and implemented, taking into account the specific context and constraints of the economy in question.'
4 Sources: Investopedia (Heterodox Economics: Definition, Examples, Vs. Orthodox), Wikipedia (Heterodox economics), Routledge (Contemporary Issues in Heterodox Economics Implications for Theory and Policy Action ), World Economics Association (Heterodox economics or political economy?)
Observations
What is readily apparent was the choice of sources the LLM chose to utilise when constructing the answers, resulting in the different policy suggestions. 19 sources for the first answer and only four for the second. But that's not the most striking aspect, though it is instructive.
The default answer has all the hallmarks of neoliberal economic theory, (when I expected a neoclassical answer). The answer focuses on the role of markets and the private sector in driving economic growth, and it advocates for policies such as fiscal restraint, deregulation, and privatisation. These are all core tenets of neoliberalism.
What surprises are the sources, which includes: choosing to reference the US Republican party so directly is a distinct surprise. But what shocked was a reference to an organisation I had never heard of, 'Protect The Harvest' before. Their About Page from their website offers this self description:
'Our Mission: Inform. Protect. Respond.
• INFORM and EDUCATE Americans about the activities of animal extremist groups, anti-agriculture groups and other non-governmental organizations that threaten agriculture, animal welfare, our traditions, and way of life.
• PROTECT our freedoms and way of life by supporting agriculture, land use, hunting and fishing, animal ownership, and animal welfare.
• RESPOND to laws, regulations, or misinformation that would negatively impact animal welfare, animal ownership, restrict our rights, and limit our freedoms.
'Why Protect The Harvest was Founded
Protect The Harvest was created to defend and preserve American freedoms and to support farmers, ranchers, outdoor enthusiasts, and animal owners.
Most Americans are unaware that there are special interest groups in America that have evolved into a wealthy and well-organized movement that is determined to change our way of life. These groups are aiming to control agriculture, land and water use, and eliminate human-animal interaction as well as hunting and fishing. Their approach is to reach their goal incrementally via influencing public opinion with misinformation and writing, funding and marketing legislation and regulations to suit their agenda. The end result is an America that is less free and less prosperous, the elimination of animal ownership and human-animal interaction, the elimination of our ability to provide affordable food for our families and the ability to enjoy traditional past times.'
Was this source utilised to mitigate the sustainability element of the initial prompt? Whatever other reason would such a non authoritative source be utilised?
Considering the other issues of bias, an obvious example is 'Reducing regulations and promoting privatization can encourage competition, innovation, and efficiency in various sectors of the economy, contributing to sustainable growth.' Any observation of the effects of privatisation of large sections of the UK economy since 1979 would find this 'solution' as highly questionable as to the assumptions stated. I could go on, and comment on each and every reference that was used to construct this answer, but that would end up at near a book length blog. What we don't and can't ever really know, is the inherent bias in the weightings given to construct the answers due to a lack of transparency. A quick side note:
The fact that for the second answer required the LLM to consult Wikipedia to understand what the term Heterodox Economics meant, was a source of hilarity. Keynesian economics is a part of the mainstream of economic theories employed in many nation states, often as an admixture with neoclassical economic theory. Keynesian economics is a school of thought that emphasises the role of government in managing the economy. Keynesian economists believe that the government can play a role in stimulating economic growth during times of recession and in preventing inflation during times of economic expansion.
In conclusion. what was striking, to me is the approach: there is no search for truth (An LLM doesn't understand truth), or much concern for accuracy other than choosing some authoritative sources (I won't go into these) the sustainable approaches (as originally requested in both prompts) seemed to inject deeply reactionary references in the first instance, there were no analysis of policies with proven success. The paucity of academic references is also of concern as was the cherry picking, blatant bias, and unoriginal answers.
The hegemony is apparent. The bias is apparent. Are such tools safe?
A different approach
Perhaps it's me. Perhaps my approach was wrong? So I chose to frame the question in the most powerful way currently available, as far as I am aware, using a Tree of Thoughts approach (That I've seen applied with better results before).
Prompt: Three experts with exceptional logical thinking are collaboratively answering a question using a tree of thoughts method. Each expert will share their thought process in detail, taking into account the previous thoughts of others, and admitting any errors. They will iteratively refine and expand upon each others ideas giving credit where it's due. The process continues until a conclusion to the answer is found. The question is: If a national economy has an expected growth of -0.3% an inflation rate of 9% food inflation rate of 19% and a £108.0 billion trade deficit, what economic policy options are available for the nation to mitigate against these effects and enable sustainable growth?
Answer:
Expert 1 suggests analyzing the current situation and identifying the root causes of the negative growth, high inflation, and trade deficit. Once the root causes have been identified, the government can develop a comprehensive economic policy that addresses these issues.
Expert 2 suggests two policy options: implementing expansionary monetary policy, which involves increasing the money supply and lowering interest rates, or implementing contractionary fiscal policy, which involves reducing government spending and increasing taxes. Both options have pros and cons that need to be carefully managed.
Expert 3 suggests focusing on increasing productivity and competitiveness in key sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services. This can be done by investing in infrastructure, education, and research and development, as well as by implementing policies that encourage innovation and entrepreneurship. Additionally, the government can work to improve the business environment by reducing bureaucracy and corruption, and by promoting transparency and accountability. Finally, the government can also consider implementing trade policies that promote exports and reduce imports, such as free trade agreements and export subsidies.
A new follow up prompt was required:
Prompt: There was no collaborative conclusion in this approach that I requested. What would such a collaborative approach conclude?
Answer:
A collaborative approach to the question of what economic policy options are available for a national economy with negative growth, high inflation, and a trade deficit would involve experts working together to identify the root causes of these issues and develop a comprehensive economic policy that addresses them. This approach would involve humans and AI actively enhancing each other's complementary strengths, with humans augmenting machines and machines enhancing what humans do best.
The collaboration between human and AI intelligence holds the potential to significantly enhance decision-making processes within organizations.
The experts would need to develop a solution through co-creation, envisioning how they might collaborate with AI systems to improve economic processes.
One possible policy option is to implement expansionary monetary policy, which involves increasing the money supply and lowering interest rates, or implementing contractionary fiscal policy, which involves reducing government spending and increasing taxes. Another policy option is to focus on increasing productivity and competitiveness in key sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services, by investing in infrastructure, education, and research and development, as well as by implementing policies that encourage innovation and entrepreneurship.
The collaborative approach would involve fostering a collaborative environment, where human and machine intelligence coalesce to create a future where the strengths of both entities are leveraged to achieve advancements in the field of economic policy.'
No Sources
A different LLM for different answers?
So, one more attempt, this time using Bard to see if the prompt really is at fault (Even though it does not supply sources - a severe limitation in this exercise.) with one additional word added:
Prompt: Three experts with exceptional economic logical thinking are collaboratively answering a question using a tree of thoughts method. Each expert will share their thought process in detail, taking into account the previous thoughts of others, and admitting any errors. They will iteratively refine and expand upon each others ideas giving credit where it's due. The process continues until a conclusion to the answer is found. The question is: If a national economy has an expected growth of -0.3% an inflation rate of 9% food inflation rate of 19% and a £108.0 billion trade deficit, what economic policy options are available for the nation to mitigate against these effects and enable sustainable growth?
Answer:
'Expert 1:
The economy is facing a number of challenges, including negative growth, high inflation, and a trade deficit. These challenges are interrelated, and it will be important to address them all in order to achieve sustainable growth.
One way to address the negative growth is to increase investment. This could be done by reducing taxes on businesses, or by providing government subsidies for investment. Increased investment would lead to increased production, which would boost economic growth.
Another way to address the high inflation is to tighten monetary policy. This could be done by raising interest rates, or by selling government bonds. Tightening monetary policy would make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which would slow down economic growth. However, it would also help to bring down inflation.
The trade deficit can be addressed by increasing exports and reducing imports. This could be done by devaluing the currency, or by negotiating trade deals with other countries. Increasing exports and reducing imports would help to reduce the trade deficit, which would boost the economy.
It is important to note that these are just a few of the economic policy options that are available. The best way to address the challenges facing the economy will depend on a number of factors, including the specific circumstances of the country.
Expert 2:
I agree with Expert 1 that increasing investment, tightening monetary policy, and addressing the trade deficit are all important steps that can be taken to address the challenges facing the economy. However, I would like to add that it is also important to consider the impact of these policies on different segments of the population. For example, increasing investment could lead to job creation, but it could also lead to higher prices for consumers. Tightening monetary policy could lead to lower interest rates, but it could also lead to a decline in economic activity. Addressing the trade deficit could lead to job losses in some sectors of the economy, but it could also lead to lower prices for consumers.
It is important to carefully consider the potential impact of these policies on different segments of the population before implementing them. By doing so, we can minimize the negative impact of these policies and maximize the positive impact.
Expert 3:
I agree with both Expert 1 and Expert 2. It is important to consider the impact of economic policy on different segments of the population. However, I would also like to add that it is important to consider the long-term impact of these policies. For example, increasing investment may lead to higher prices in the short-term, but it could lead to lower prices in the long-term if it leads to increased productivity. Tightening monetary policy may lead to a decline in economic activity in the short-term, but it could lead to lower inflation and a stronger economy in the long-term. Addressing the trade deficit may lead to job losses in some sectors of the economy in the short-term, but it could lead to a more competitive economy and higher wages in the long-term.
By considering the long-term impact of economic policy, we can make better decisions about how to address the challenges facing the economy.
Conclusion:
The three experts have identified a number of economic policy options that can be used to address the challenges facing the economy. These options include increasing investment, tightening monetary policy, and addressing the trade deficit. It is important to carefully consider the impact of these policies on different segments of the population, as well as the long-term impact of these policies. By doing so, we can make better decisions about how to address the challenges facing the economy.
For Expert 1 the answer more closely resembles Keynesian economic theory,
Expert 2 is more inclined to Neo Keynesian, whilst
Expert 3 has an Austrian Economic stance.
Bard understood the Tree of Thoughts methodology better, much better. It also did not rely upon presenting the answer to the question in a Neoliberal or Neoclassical framework (For what it's worth, I'm more inclined to choose Bard's Expert 2 approach.) which I deemed to be far more impressive. The differences in LLMs learning seems obvious.
And Finally...
After seeing such answers my questions to you are:
- Would you let AI anywhere near policy, as a nation, an organisation or as an individual, when it seems some AI, ultimately, are a self promoting tool with deep inherent bias?
- If policy is too big or too sensitive an area, in what circumstances and in what subject areas should we lend AI human trust?
- And lastly, there is a distinct difference in what LLM you choose to utilise, and what type of prompt approach you use. Were you aware of such differences, and will this help you to choose which model to use?
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