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Will AIs Take All Our Jobs and End Human History—or Not? Well, It’s Complicated…

Utilising the excellent Stephen Wolfram's blog post

Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the most powerful and disruptive technologies of our time. It has the potential to transform every aspect of human life, from health care and education to entertainment and commerce. But it also raises some profound ethical and social questions: Will AI replace human workers and make them obsolete? Will AI create new opportunities and challenges for human creativity and collaboration? Will AI pose an existential threat to humanity and its values?


These are not easy questions to answer, and there is no consensus among experts and researchers on the future of AI and its impact on society. Some argue that AI will augment human capabilities and enhance human well-being, while others warn that AI will surpass human intelligence and control human destiny. Some envision a utopian scenario where AI will solve all our problems and create a post-scarcity society, while others foresee a dystopian scenario where AI will cause mass unemployment, inequality and conflict.


In this blog post, we will try to summarise some of the main arguments and perspectives on these issues, and highlight some of the uncertainties and complexities involved. We will also suggest some ways that we can prepare for the possible scenarios and shape the development and use of AI in a responsible and ethical manner.


AI and Jobs: From Automation to Augmentation


One of the most debated topics in AI is its impact on jobs and employment. Many studies have predicted that AI will automate a large number of tasks and occupations, especially those that are routine, repetitive or low-skill. According to a 2017 report by McKinsey Global Institute, up to 800 million workers worldwide could be displaced by automation by 2030. Another 2017 report by PwC estimated that 30% of UK jobs could be at high risk of automation by the mid-2030s.


However, these predictions are not deterministic or inevitable. They depend on many factors, such as the pace and direction of technological innovation, the availability and cost of human labour, the demand and preferences of consumers and employers, the legal and regulatory frameworks, and the social and cultural norms. Moreover, automation does not necessarily mean elimination. It can also mean augmentation: AI can complement human skills and abilities, rather than replace them. For example, AI can assist doctors in diagnosing diseases, teachers in personalising learning, or artists in creating new forms of expression.


Therefore, the impact of AI on jobs is not only a matter of quantity, but also of quality. AI can create new jobs that require new skills and competencies, such as data scientists, AI engineers or ethicists. AI can also change the nature and content of existing jobs, requiring workers to adapt and learn new skills. For instance, a 2018 report by the World Economic Forum estimated that by 2022, at least 54% of all employees will need significant reskilling and upskilling.


AI and Society: From Competition to Cooperation


Another important topic in AI is its impact on society and human values. Many people are concerned that AI will create or exacerbate social problems such as inequality, discrimination, privacy violation or cybercrime. For example, AI can be used to manipulate information or influence behaviour through fake news or deepfakes. AI can also be biased or unfair in its decisions or actions, due to the data or algorithms it uses. For instance, a 2016 study by ProPublica found that a widely used algorithm for predicting criminal recidivism was racially biased against black defendants.


However, these problems are not inherent or unavoidable in AI. They are reflections of the human choices and values that shape the design and use of AI. Therefore, we can address them by ensuring that AI is aligned with human values and principles, such as fairness, accountability, transparency or privacy. For example, we can develop ethical guidelines or standards for AI development and deployment. We can also implement mechanisms for oversight or audit of AI systems or outcomes. Furthermore, we can educate or empower users or stakeholders to understand or challenge AI decisions or actions.


Moreover, AI can also be used for positive social purposes, such as advancing human rights or promoting social good. For example, AI can help monitor or prevent human rights violations or abuses through satellite imagery or facial recognition. AI can also help tackle global challenges such as poverty, hunger or climate change through data analysis or optimisation. For instance, a 2019 project by Microsoft used AI to map poverty in Africa using satellite imagery.


Therefore, the impact of AI on society is not only a matter of risk, but also of opportunity. AI can enable new forms of human collaboration and cooperation across borders or domains.


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